Well, we’re back in 50:50 land. the marines have arrived off the coast of Iran.
If US ground forces invade Iranian islands this week -> they lose -> hormuz stays closed forever -> everyone moves onto renewables -> planet is saved (plus a side effect of possible limited nuclear exchange).
If Trump is just using the marines as a negotiation tactic and gives Iran everything they want, then we’ll be back at normal oil production within 6 months and the climate gets worse for another decade.
At this point, I’m not sure what we’re meant to be wishing for.